quarta-feira, novembro 01, 2017

o vector tempo não é irrelevante (parte II)

Recordar estes postais sobre a aplicação dos princípios da física à economia:


"The difference between economic competition and the successful procedure of science is that the former exhibits a method of discovering particular temporary circumstances, while science seeks to discover something often known as “general facts,” i.e., regularities in events, and is concerned with unique, particular facts only to the extent that they tend to refute or confirm its theories. Since this is a matter of general and permanent features of our world, scientific discoveries have ample time to demonstrate their value, whereas the usefulness of particular circumstances disclosed by economic competition is to a considerable extent transitory. ... By the nature of things, however, the theory of the market is unable to accomplish this in all those cases in which it is reasonable to make use of competition. As we shall see, the predictive power of this theory is necessarily constrained to a prediction of the type of structure or abstract order that will result; it does not, however, extend to a prediction of particular events.
...
The basis for this point of view is the conviction that the coarse structure of the economy can exhibit no regularities that are not results of the fine structure, and that those aggregates or mean values, which alone can be grasped statistically, give us no information about what takes place in the fine structure. The notion that we must formulate our theories so that they can be immediately applied to observable statistical or other measurable quantities seems to me to be a methodological error which, had the natural sciences followed it, would have greatly obstructed their progress. All we can require of theories is that, after an input of relevant data, conclusions can be derived from them that can be checked against reality. The fact that these concrete data are so diverse and complex in our area of inquiry that we can never take them all into account is an unchangeable fact, but not a shortcoming of the theory. A result of this fact is that we can derive from our theories only very general statements, or “pattern predictions,” as I have called them elsewhere; we cannot, however, derive any specific predictions of individual events from them. Certainly, however, this does not justify insisting that we derive unambiguous relationships among the immediately observable variables, or that this is the only way of obtaining scientific knowledge—particularly not if we know that, in that obscure image of reality we call statistics, in aggregates and averages we unavoidably summarize many things whose causal meaning is very diverse."
F. A. Hayek em "Competition as a Discovery Process"

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