Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta cerveja. Mostrar todas as mensagens
Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta cerveja. Mostrar todas as mensagens

terça-feira, julho 16, 2019

Cenários

Esta introdução:
"A maior produtora mundial de cervejas decidiu cancelar a entrada em bolsa da sua unidade da Ásia-Pacífico devido às condições atuais do mercado."
Há dois anos animei uma discussão em que esta abordagem emergiu num cenário.

Um player muito grande, potencial cliente B2B, num determinado sector iria abandonar a prática de produzir na China para todo o mundo e criar unidades produtivas para servir cada um dos continentes.

Esse player, como a AB InBev, compete pelo custo mais baixo.

quarta-feira, janeiro 30, 2019

"shifts toward particular logics can be reversed" (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.

Como não fazer logo o paralelismo com os dinossauros azuis, pretos e vermelhos.
Como não pensar nas frases "stuck-in-the-middle", "salami slicers".

Mesmo sector de actividade, mas vantagens competitivas e pressupostos completamente diferentes.






Imagens retiradas de "What Is Dead May Never Die: Institutional Regeneration through Logic Reemergence in Dutch Beer Brewing", Administrative Science Quarterly 1–44 (2018) de Jochem J. Kroezen e Pursey P. M. A. R. Heugens.



terça-feira, janeiro 29, 2019

"shifts toward particular logics can be reversed" (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.
"The beer item collectors association BAV also published a bimonthly magazine that frequently reported on historic Dutch breweries. A number of writers also began addressing the history of Dutch beer brewing. As a result, there was growing awareness of the history of Dutch brewing, and a growing amount was recollected and curated, increasing the availability and accessibility of the remnants of the craft logic.
Thus during the first stage of logic reemergence, institutional change took off once ties between the previously dormant and dispersed custodians of the decomposed logic were regenerated. This involved restorative activities as dormant actors were reawakened, ties between them were reestablished, and the remnants of the decomposed logic were again made available and accessible. It also involved transformative activities as the dormant custodians of craft became organized in new ways, new recruits became absorbed in these networks, and foreign entities also came to be regarded as representations of a craft-brewing logic that had decomposed in the Netherlands.
...
PINT’s membership grew from 30 in 1981 to over 1,000 by 1994, and its bimonthly magazine attracted an increasingly wide readership in the Dutch beer-brewing field. But since PINT became organized around multiple local chapters that kept close ties with local pubs, hobby brewing associations, and eventually nascent craft breweries, which were not necessarily members of the association, the texts it produced were indicative of a developing national discourse and captured the regenerated vocabulary of practice surrounding craft brewing that began to emerge from reestablished networks. PINT not only provided a platform for alternative voices in the beer industry but also deliberately disseminated texts about what was ‘‘wrong’’ with the beer industry and what remedies were needed according to emerging ideas that were constitutive of this discourse.
A recurring component of these texts was the use of frames in which prototypical examples of modern brewing, industrial brewing corporations such as Heineken, were depicted as a foil to provide a favorable contrast for craft brewers."
Impressionante como uma revolução pode ser gerada por um movimento de base, que vai agrupando de forma ad-hoc indivíduos e grupos gerando um todo coerente.

Continua.

Trechos retirados de "What Is Dead May Never Die: Institutional Regeneration through Logic Reemergence in Dutch Beer Brewing", Administrative Science Quarterly 1–44 (2018) de Jochem J. Kroezen e Pursey P. M. A. R. Heugens.

domingo, janeiro 27, 2019

"shifts toward particular logics can be reversed" (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

O interessante é como este renascimento
começou a partir de um movimento de base, sem grandes recursos, sem patrocínios, sem intervenções governamentais.
"A key development was the emergence of five independent beer pubs that were not contractually tied to any industrial brewer and that began to import modest amounts of traditional foreign craft beer, predominantly Belgian ale, as an alternative to Dutch industrial lager. These locales, where individuals with ‘‘strange tastes’’ could meet (to quote a representative of one of these pubs), were Cafe ́ De Beyerd in Breda, Gollem in Amsterdam, Jan Primus in Utrecht, ‘t Pumpke in Nijmegen, and Locus Publicus in Rotterdam and Delft. The idea to import foreign beers emerged when the founders of these pubs came in contact with traditional beer styles that were still being brewed in Belgium, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
...The owners of pioneering beer pubs started with very modest means and ambitions and were surprised by the impact of their actions. Their initial success was followed by an emerging network of importers that began to specialize in foreign traditional craft beer.
...
The attention given to traditional alternatives reawakened actors with marginalized or dissolved roles, who were dissatisfied with the state of the Dutch beer-brewing industry. The exposure to foreign traditional craft beer led to these actors’ growing perception that something had been lost in the Netherlands with the shift toward industrial brewing. The pioneering beer pubs gave these actors a chance to meet and (re)connect. One of these, Gollem in Amsterdam, began to organize an annual beer festival in 1978 for alternative Dutch beer. Initially, this was a very small-scale affair, but the festival grew from 65 to over 300 visitors within two years and would eventually attract more than 10,000 visitors...The pubs and their festivals thus provided an important space for marginalized actors, like enthusiast consumers, brewmasters, and pub owners, to connect and discuss the state of Dutch beer brewing. Importantly, these groups contained both individuals with access to institutional remnants and individuals who were entirely new to beer brewing.
...
A group of Dutch beer enthusiasts who frequented the pioneering pubs also regularly traveled to London to visit pubs there. They noticed that the diversity of beers and brewing practices was higher in the UK and that there was a consumer association—the Campaign for Real Ale or CAMRA—promoting the revitalization of traditional craft brewing. This group would go on to establish the Dutch beer consumer association PINT.
...
The establishment of PINT initiated the emergence of an ecosystem of new collective organizations that all contributed to a nostalgia-infused movement for change in the industry.
...
In 1983, Nico van Dijk co-established a foundation for beer item collectors (BAV), which fueled greater awareness of traditional Dutch craft brewing. In 1984, the first modern brewers’ guilds—De Roerstok and Twents Bierbrouwersgilde—were established to encourage hobby brewing, inspiring a new generation of brewery entrepreneurs. The Bier Keurmeesters Gilde (BKG) that trains judges for the independent examination of the quality of amateur beers during competitions and tastings was established in 1986. And in 1987, an association for specialty beer pubs (ABT) was established, which acted as a catalyst for the distribution of craft beer. Collectively, these initiatives amplified the initial effect of the pioneering pubs. They revitalized marginalized actor groups by reawakening traditional members, providing them with spaces to reconnect and reflect, and attracting new recruits."
Continua.

Trechos retirados de "What Is Dead May Never Die: Institutional Regeneration through Logic Reemergence in Dutch Beer Brewing", Administrative Science Quarterly 1–44 (2018) de Jochem J. Kroezen e Pursey P. M. A. R. Heugens.

sábado, janeiro 26, 2019

"shifts toward particular logics can be reversed" (parte II)

Parte I.

Voltemos à tabela 1:
O que vemos ali dentro da área sublinhada é um retrato fiel do paradigma económico do século XX.

Não admira a evolução do número de sobreviventes:
No modelo económico do século XX, o modelo gerado pela Revolução Industrial e que atingiu o seu apogeu no século XX, só existe um pico na paisagem competitiva. No final só pode existir um vencedor.

Mas em Mongo, o modelo económico deixa de ser único e abrem-se muitos outros picos:

Cada pico representa uma hipótese de procurar o sucesso. E ter sucesso num pico pouco tem a ver com ter sucesso num outro pico. Daí a minha exortação, concentrem-se nos clientes-alvo e não na concorrência.

Recomendo uma comparação das duas colunas, na figura acima, entre "Traditional Craft Brewing" e "Modern Industrial Brewing" - dois modelos tão diferentes!!!

O que é que aconteceu para que o renascimento típico de Mongo ocorresse a partir dos anos 70 do século passado?
"The dominance of the large industrial brewers led to substantial diminishment and, ultimately, dissolution of the roles of field actors who used to carry traditional craft brewing. But this decomposed logic left behind institutional remnants that continued to be at least partially conserved [Moi ici: Isto faz-me lembrar uma empresa de calçado que conheço que tem uma fatia muito grande de trabalhadores reformados. Gente com mais de 65 anos e que continua a trabalhar. A quantidade de gente que domina a arte de cortar pele à mão é impressionante. Sobretudo nestes tempos de balancés e máquinas de corte.]
...
While these remnants appear to be important resources for institutional change, regenerating them was rife with challenges due to their significant degree of decomposition. First, although there were individuals who could act as custodians of these institutional remnants, they were dispersed and had either become disembedded from the field or had completely switched to modern industrial brewing. Until 1980, there had been no collective efforts in the field to maintain or conserve elements of the craft-brewing logic. Craft-brewing remnants were therefore scattered around the field. Second, the remaining remnants provided only an incomplete set of representations of the traditional logic, which was insufficiently actionable.
...
Traditional craft brewing had come to be associated with inferior quality as compared with modern industrial brewing, in part because of the political efforts of the modern industrial brewers. Compliance with increased ‘‘quality’’ regulations imposed in 1926, which had resulted in part from industrial brewers’ lobbying efforts, required substantial investments in ingredients and equipment, which many traditional breweries were unable to make [Moi ici: Tão típico! ASAEs et al são criações dos gigantes para afastar concorrência. Recuo a 2010 onde escrevi "Quanto mais maduro estiver um sector para consolidação, maior a torrente de legislação e regulamentação sobre ele. Antes de começar a comprar concorrentes, há que expulsar os mais fracos do mercado, ou criar-lhes dificuldades extra para que sintam uma oferta de aquisição como um alívio bem-vindo."]. These policies, which had institutionalized crisp industrial lager as the dominant and qualitatively superior product, combined with the natural stigma associated with failure initially disqualified remnants left behind by the traditional carriers of craft brewing as legitimate building blocks for later change efforts.
In spite of these challenges, however, the craft-brewing logic reemerged in the Netherlands through the establishment of 489 new breweries between 1980 and 2016. These new organizations collectively regenerated the institutional remnants of craft. This led to fundamental institutional change, as these organizations contributed to the restoration of the institutional orders of the community, family, professions, and religion in the field.
...
The process of regenerative institutional change in Dutch beer brewing began during the early 1970s, when networks of actors with marginalized roles—such as brewmasters and members of traditional brewing families, who were the dormant custodians of craft brewing—were restored and transformed. These groups were reawakened when they were exposed to the surviving elements of traditional craft brewing in surrounding countries and began to mix with other marginal actors who were attracted to a budding hobby-brewing scene. Out of these interactions developed a growing sense that something of value had been left behind with the shift to modern industrial brewing. This fueled an interest in Dutch beer-brewing history and the mobilization of resources to promote nostalgia-infused change, ultimately leading to the rediscovery of what was left of the decomposed craft-brewing logic."
Continua.

Trechos retirados de "What Is Dead May Never Die: Institutional Regeneration through Logic Reemergence in Dutch Beer Brewing", Administrative Science Quarterly 1–44 (2018) de Jochem J. Kroezen e Pursey P. M. A. R. Heugens.

sexta-feira, janeiro 25, 2019

"shifts toward particular logics can be reversed" (parte I)

"Many organizational fields in which modernity has seemingly taken hold may experience a revival of traditional arrangements. Revival dynamics are visible in organizational fields as diverse as cattle farming, retail banking, radio broadcasting, and whisky distilling. Such cases pose a puzzle for institutional change theoreticians, who, ... have long depicted change as a process of modern institutional arrangements destroying and replacing traditional ones. Institutional change can thus paradoxically also occur through the reemergence of traditional arrangements that challenge modern ones.
...
Regenerative institutional change thus refers to shifts that occur due to the reemergence of logics that had previously experienced decline and decomposition due to modernization. The development of the grass-fed livestock market in the U.S. as a result of the revival of traditional farming practices suggests a reemergence of particular logics that had previously dwindled in importance due to a shift toward industrial agriculture. The microradio movement in the U.S. spurred the reemergence of communal, religious, and educational radio stations by way of restoring low-power radio technology that had previously been abandoned as a result of increasing corporate concentration and federal regulation. And the reemergence of community banks in areas in the U.S. that were previously subject to acquisition activity by large national banks also suggests that shifts toward particular logics can be reversed.
...
craft revival followed an extensive period of total domination by industrial brewing. 
...
Modern industrial brewing. The Industrial Revolution, the invention of the corporation, and substantial improvements in the transportability of perishable goods ultimately enabled both the proliferation of modern industrial breweries and the emergence of a very different institutional logic around the turn of the twentieth century. [Moi ici: O Normalistão] Although there were many other examples, Heineken is the epitome of industrial brewing. It was established in 1864, when the son of a trader in cheese and butter acquired a struggling traditional brewery that had recently become a limited liability company. Heineken quickly developed into one of the largest breweries globally by focusing on mass production of industrial lager. The economic rationalization of beer brewing by Heineken and others led to a dramatic homogenization of products, such that by 1980 all of the beer produced in the Netherlands could be classified as industrial lager and traditional breweries had failed en masse. As an ideal type, modern industrial brewing involved a concern with profit, market power, and economies of scale; an automated and standardized brewing process; and a highly rational approach to the organization of production and sales, in which brewmasters became operations managers who were hierarchically subjected to financial and sales managers. Table 1 contrasts the ideal-typical logics of traditional craft and modern industrial brewing."

Trechos retirados de "What Is Dead May Never Die: Institutional Regeneration through Logic Reemergence in Dutch Beer Brewing", Administrative Science Quarterly 1–44 (2018) de Jochem J. Kroezen e Pursey P. M. A. R. Heugens.

quarta-feira, maio 30, 2018

quinta-feira, abril 26, 2018

Revolta contra a suckiness

À medida que nos embrenharmos em Mongo, esse universo económico repleto de tribos, assistiremos a um cada vez maior número de organizações e fenómenos como o retratado em "Consumers’ collective action in market system dynamics: A case of beer".

Como Seth Godin explicitou e citei em "We Are All Weird - Um manifesto sobre Mongo":
"The mass market — which made average products for average people — was invented by organizations that needed to keep their factories and systems running efficiently.
.
Stop for a second and think about the backwards nature of that sentence.
.
The factory came first. It led to the mass market. Not the other way around.
...
The typical institution ... just couldn’t afford mass customization, couldn’t afford to make a different product for every user."
Foi o século XX que uniformizou os gostos, e Mongo será o regresso ao estado humano natural, a explosão contínua da variedade de gostos, e a ascensão das tribos ("Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte XI e parte X)).

O horror a ser tratado como plancton descrito no artigo:
"So it was lager beer, right? The provincial breweries copied Carlsberg and Bryggerigruppen, and more and more types of beer disappeared from the market, and there was no innovation at all. (Anders)
.
The predominant institutional logic was organized around a belief in standardization and mass produced products. The belief affected forms of production, product variety, and institutionalized taste structures. From this institutionalized condition, DØE was formed to challenge this hegemonic institutional logic. One way the challenge manifested itself was by giving the current institutional condition a face, making a scapegoat of the incumbents’ effect on taste structure:
.
I wrote a manifest, where I wrote many good things about beer and why one should drink interesting beers instead of just boring Tuborg ... really disparaging the old breweries there, at that time. (Anders)
.
The interviews and archival material demonstrate that the association directed its energy and thrust toward this one common reference point. It was argued that the large breweries relied on the mentality that ‘‘big is beautiful and efficient’’. This critique of incumbents is illustrative of the onset of processes of deinstitutionalization and delegitimization. Several informants allude to the monotonous and standardized condition of the products that prevailed in the market and hence provoked a rally based on the position that the supply restricted the development of a more advanced consumption and taste culture: DØE was, as expressed through the AleMail communication list, a community for ‘‘everybody that is devoted to beer beyond the ordinary ‘down-the-throat’ culture’’"





Mongo já vem desde, pelo menos 2007: "A cauda longa e o planeta Mongo"

quarta-feira, janeiro 31, 2018

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

Há dias apanhei este texto, "Craft Beer Is the Strangest, Happiest Economic Story in America". O texto, face ao que se escreve há anos neste blogue, não traz nada de novo. No entanto, é interessante um artigo do mainstream trazer um conjunto de mensagens que por cá são pouco pensadas por quem tem obrigação de preparar as pessoas que vão viver na economia do depois de amanhã.

Ora vejamos:
"The monopolies are coming. In almost every economic sector, including television, books, music, groceries, pharmacies, and advertising, a handful of companies control a prodigious share of the market.[Moi ici: Foi até aqui que nos trouxe o modelo económico do século XX, a crença no eficientismo e, no preço/custo como o principal factor para ganhar clientes/consumidores. Convém não esquecer que nos anos 60 nos Estados Unidos havia um académico, Chamberlin, que queria acabar com as marcas porque iludiam o paradigma da concorrência perfeita introduzindo uma coisa horrorosa, as preferências irracionais]
...
The beer industry has been one of the worst offenders.[Moi ici: Basta pesquisar o marcador cerveja para perceber o quanto é um tema que se segue aqui há anos e até se sonhou no longínquo ano de 2007]"
O artigo começa com factos, 90% da produção de cerveja é da responsabilidade de um duopólio.
"This sort of industry consolidation troubles economists. Research has found that the existence of corporate behemoths stamps out innovation and hurts workers. Indeed, between 2002 and 2007, employment at breweries actually declined in the midst of an economic expansion.[Moi ici: É o eficientismo a funcionar, concentração, automatização, redução da variedade, redução de trabalhadores, unidades cada vez mais produtivas e mais volumosas]
But in the last decade, something strange and extraordinary has happened. Between 2008 and 2016, the number of brewery establishments expanded by a factor of six, and the number of brewery workers grew by 120 percent. Yes, a 200-year-old industry has sextupled its establishments and more than doubled its workforce in less than a decade. Even more incredibly, this has happened during a time when U.S. beer consumption declined.[Moi ici: Por favor, PARAR!!! E voltar a ler este parágrafo]
...
Preliminary mid-2017 numbers from government data are even better. They count nearly 70,000 brewery employees, nearly three times the figure just 10 years ago. Average beer prices have grown nearly 50 percent. So while Americans are drinking less beer than they did in the 2000s (probably a good thing) they’re often paying more for a superior product (another good thing). Meanwhile, the best-selling beers in the country are all in steep decline, as are their producers. Between 2007 and 2016, shipments from five major brewers—Anheuser-Busch, MillerCoors, Heineken, Pabst, and Diageo, which owns Guinness—fell by 14 percent. Goliaths are tumbling, Davids are ascendant, and beer is one of the unambiguously happy stories in the U.S. economy." 
Depois dos factos vêm as interrogações e as estranheza:
"When I first came across these statistics, I couldn’t quite believe them. Technology and globalization are supposed to make modern industries more efficient, but today’s breweries require more people to produce fewer barrels of beer. Moreover, consolidation is supposed to crush innovation and destroy entrepreneurs, but breweries are multiplying, even as sales shrink for each of the four most popular beers:
...
The source of these new jobs and new establishments is no mystery to beer fans. It’s the craft-beer revolution, that Cambrian explosion of small-scale breweries that have sprouted across the country.
...
But what explains the nature of the craft-beer boom?
...
The first cause is something simple yet capricious—consumer tastes. “At the end of the day, the craft-beer movement was driven by consumer demand,” said Bart Watson, the chief economist at the Brewers Association, a trade group. “We’ve seen three main markers in the rise of craft beer—fuller flavor, greater variety, and more intense support for local businesses.”[Moi ici: Tudo coisas que encaixam no nosso modelo de Mongo - não somos plankton, explosão de diversidade e tribos, proximidade e autenticidade]
...
Craft breweries have focused on tastes that were underrepresented in the hyper-consolidated beer market. Large breweries ignored burgeoning niches, ... It’s also significant that the craft beer movement took off during the Great Recession, as joblessness created a generation of “necessity entrepreneurs” who, lacking formal offers, opened small-time breweries.
...
A phalanx of small businesses doesn’t automatically constitute a perfect economy. There are benefits to size. Larger companies can support greater production, and as a result they often pay the highest wages and attract the best talent. But what the U.S. economy seems to suffer from now isn't a fetish for smallness, but a complacency with enormity. The craft-beer movement is an exception to that rule. It ought to be a model for the country."
Os gigantes não resvalam para a "suckiness" por causa de má gestão, mas porque está-lhes no sangue. As vantagens de ser gigante só existem se se produzir grandes séries iguais. Grandes séries iguais têm de apontar ao gosto mais comum, não podem fugir da média. Isto num tempo em que há cada vez mais tribos que valorizam o que é visto pela maioria, cada vez mais pequena, como extremismo. E essas tribos extremistas não transigem.

Esta série não fica por aqui.

terça-feira, janeiro 30, 2018

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.
"Not only did print on demand provide an easy way to offer my customers more options, but it was also a simple way to spread brand awareness without having to fill my apartment with inventory.
The world of print-on-demand fashion has revolutionized the side hustle and merchandising game for many entrepreneurs. There is no risk in launching a new T-shirt design in your store because there is no preprinting and inventory required.
...
“E-commerce is all about finding ways to do things faster, cheaper, and easier,” ... “The fact that I can run a profitable business out of my home, with no office space, employees, or startup costs is pretty phenomenal.”
...
Some store owners have taken advantage of these same tools to make hyper-personalized items.
...
Despite these advantages, one of the largest downsides to print on demand remains the price. When no quantities are guaranteed up front, the prices for printing are not cheap, leaving a low profit margin for the seller.
...
Print-on-demand platforms make it easy for artists to list their work on a multitude of shirts, posters, mugs, and so on without testing them in advance. Companies make this variety tempting to give customers a greater selection and increase the chances they’ll make a purchase.
...
In our fast-paced era of online content creation, social media stars with big fan bases are becoming much more common. For smaller stars with dedicated followings, these on-demand opportunities can also be fantastic for creating branded merchandise. YouTubers and podcasters can let their fans be brand ambassadors, spreading the word and growing the hype.
...
But on-demand printing is not limited to fashion. It’s also a wonderful way for writers to self-publish.
...
Overall, on-demand printing and its integration with various platforms is empowering designers and creators alike to take charge over their creative ventures and not be limited by traditional business or industry barriers. It makes small fashion businesses more accessible and brings buyers a more custom experience."
Recordar todos aqueles que têm sempre na boca a inovação, a Indústria 4.0, a IA e, continuam a acreditar que a escala é tudo:
"Hoje em dia, na grande parte das actividades, a escala é muito importante."
E não percebem a dispersão crescente da procura, de como a autenticidade é cada vez mais importante e de como há cada vez menos barreiras à entrada: a democratização da produção.




Trechos retirados de "Technology Shaping the Fashion Industry"

segunda-feira, janeiro 29, 2018

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte II)

Parte I.

Quem ao longo dos anos segue este blogue, conhece a minha metáfora de Mongo sobre o mundo económico para onde caminhámos, e sobre como esse mundo representa um distanciamento face ao paradigma que formatou as universidades e os cursos de economia e gestão, moldados nos modelos da produção em massa, da escala, daquilo a que chamo de Metropolis ou Magnitogorsk, crentes na racionalidade das decisões.

Quem conhece a metáfora de Mongo, olhe bem para o tweet que se segue:


Reparem:
"a big shift away from standardized mass market products to tailored creative products, leading to a significant fragmentation of product businesses"
Como isto é nem mais nem menos o que aqui dizemos desde Novembro de 2007:
"Se Chris Anderson tiver razão, e espero bem que sim, trata-se de uma esperança, para as sociedades dos países pequenos. Quanto mais aumentar o poder da cauda longa, mais oportunidades de negócio existirão, para as pequenas empresas, rápidas e flexíveis que apostarem na diferenciação, na diversidade, na variedade. A cabeça pode ficar para os asiáticos, mas a nata das margens, essa ficará para quem, como dizia Jesus Cristo, tiver olhos para ver, e ouvidos para ouvir, a corrente, a tendência de fundo."
Na parte III vamos mergulhar nas implicações das produções "on demand" para na parte IV analisarmos o artigo sobre as cervejas artesanais e o seu simbolismo.








domingo, janeiro 28, 2018

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness"



Recordar "De que serve a escala em Mongo?"

Recomendo a leitura do texto inicial sobre o plankton"Are we not plankton?":
"Whales have to eat a lot of plankton. A whale needs an enormous number of these tiny creatures because, let's be honest, one plankton just doesn't make a meal.
...
It's unlikely the whale savors each plankton, relishing the value that it brings.
For most modern marketers, quantity isn't the point. What matters is to matter. Lives changed. Work that made an actual difference. Connection.
.
You are not a plankton. Neither are your customers."

domingo, novembro 19, 2017

Mongo e JTBD

Por um lado Mongo, o progresso dos espaços com as suas próprias cervejas artesanais. Por outro lado, o mesmo conselho referido neste postal recente, "Olhar para os clientes-alvo":
"To find a solution, Sarah and her team reconnected with Gatorade’s core customer, the serious athlete. What they found was that these athletes did much more than just hydrate during athletic events"
Olhar para o cliente-alvo, para o seu contexto, para o seu dia e descobrir que há outros serviços que o espaço pode prestar.

No princípio do ano mudei de casa e antes de arranjar um espaço para escritório, enquanto tinha as minhas coisas num contentor (recomendo vivamente), usava o McDonalds do nó do Fojo em Gaia como base de trabalho, tirando a música muito alta para o meu gosto, tinha uma mesa, tinha internet e electricidade.

Depois de uma caminhada matinal, estabelecia-me e ficava por lá das 8h30 até às 13h30. Era interessante reparar como aquele espaço se mutava ao longo da manhã. Pequenos-almoços e cafés e pequenas reuniões para a fauna do início da manhã. Reuniões de trabalho, entrevistas de emprego ou entrevistas a traidores industriais, entrevistas a jornalistas, o advogado carregado de papéis e ainda com mais marcadores fluorescentes e post-its do que eu a meio da manhã. Depois, à hora do almoço os estudantes da secundária a 500 metros e toda a panóplia de gente que precisa de um almoço rápido, barato e sem receio da higiene.

Esta abordagem em torno do Job-To-Be-Done presente em "Breweries Find That Coffee Is Their Second Favorite Beverage".

BTW, eu que bebo café sem açúcar (que mascare a realidade) sei que há muito café horrível a circular por este país. Assim, quando o costume de usar açúcar ou adoçantes com o café cair, vai nascer a procura por melhor café. Procura essa que vai ser difícil de ser servida por empresas mais preocupadas com a eficiência do que atender às chamadas de atenção de uns consumidores-chatos. Nessa altura estará criada a oportunidade para alguém avançar com café artesanal.

segunda-feira, setembro 18, 2017

Futurizar

""A crescente automatização de processos gera necessidades de pesados investimentos em processos produtivos que, para serem rentabilizados, exigem taxas de ocupação elevadas, no limite tendendo para a laboração contínua."
Mas Mongo não vai nesta direcção, Mongo é diversidade, flexibilidade, rapidez, irregularidade.

De um lado um exército clássico do outro uma célula da Al-Qaeda.

Mais tarde ou mais cedo as limitações do modelo (que impõem estas restrições de quantidade) vão gerar oportunidades para organizações tipo-Local Motors e quiçá, se os governos não continuarem prisioneiros das corporações, a uma réplica do que aconteceu com a explosão da cerveja artesanal.

Trecho retirado de "Fabricantes advertem que sucesso do setor automóvel depende de ganhos de produtividade"

BTW, a seu tempo veremos pedidos de apoio para os contribuintes, via Estado, apoiarem estas empresas a montarem represas para atrasar a sua inevitável derrocada/reformulação porque os seus clientes terão desaparecido e as Local Motors preferirão fornecedores mais pequenos.

O que é um concorrente em Mongo? (parte II)

Parte I.

Agora acabo de ler estes trechos de "Geographic Patterns of Craft Breweries at the Intraurban Scale" de Isabelle Nilsson, Neil Reid & Matthew Lehnert, publicado por The Professional Geographer.
"The emergence, growth, and success of the craft brewing industry are a David versus Goliath story.
...
as an industry takes on an oligopolistic structure, it often produces an increasingly homogeneous product (American pale lager) that depends on economies of scale in production, marketing, and distribution to perpetuate its success. Although American pale lager has historically satisfied the palates of most Americans, there emerged a growing segment of the population that preferred craft beer. Craft beer drinkers prefer craft over mass-produced beer for a number of reasons, including its greater variety in terms of styles and flavors; the independent, local, and small-scale nature of craft breweries; and the innovative nature of the industry, which means that there are always new beers to sample. The growing popularity of locally produced craft beer mirrors what has happened in other food- and drink-related sectors; witness the increasing number of farmers markets and wineries across the country.
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Early craft beer drinkers have been referred to as insurgents or rebels, who identified a “hot cause”—a desire for more choice in terms of taste, quality, and styles of beer. Hot causes, however, require “cool mobilization”; that is, someone must engage in actions that challenge the status quo and turn desire into reality.
...
Home brewing clubs provided a venue where individuals could hone their skills, experiment with new recipes, and share ideas with fellow enthusiasts. The clubs were critical in developing the culture of collaboration that is a cornerstone of the industry today. They also became the places where the seeds of revolution were sown, a revolution that manifest itself when, one by one, some home brewers decided to commercialize their hobby. Collaboration was particularly valuable for the early home and commercial craft brewers, as there existed only a small number of books on the brewing process. Hence, home brewing clubs became places where knowledge was traded and collective learning occurred. Home brewing clubs were akin to communities of practice. They were also places where tacit knowledge, such as demonstrating how to make and use brewing equipment, was exchanged."
Quando ontem à noite em "Strategy For a Networked World" de Ramírez & Mannervik li:
"Collaboration is at Least as Important as Competition
...
in the VCS aproach to strategy, collaboration is at least as important as competition. The decisive strength lies in how well the interactions within the VCS enable values to be co-created, i.e. on how well the actors collaborate, and how capable they are to attract and keep actors to collaborate with. This means that the roles they are offered in a VCS have to be attractive.
...
It follows that the ability to invite, interest, enroll, and mobilize others into one's VCS is more important than focusing on competing with opponents who provide similar products or services and have designed competing VCS.
...
competing organizations also can engage each other in collaboration to achieve a common value.
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Collaboration helps the pie to get bigger for everyone; competition is about what size of a given pie one might take.[Moi ici: Este trecho é certeiro!]
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The VCS framework invites and allows a focus on how to come together to "make the pie bigger", enabling better, and more varied types of value to be co-created among actors, by actors, and with and for other actors - jointly."
E:
"In a networked world, co-designed configuring offerings imply that strategy is as important in terms of collaborative advantage as it is in terms of competitive advantage - perhaps even more so. It is a world of business where those who design offerings with others create better design and value than others who do not collaborate in the designing."

quinta-feira, setembro 14, 2017

O que é um concorrente em Mongo?

Ainda em "Value Co-production: Intelectual Origins and Implications for Practice and Research" de Rafael Ramirez, publicado por Strategic Management Journal, 20: 49–65 (1999) sublinho:
"A value co-production view emphasizes that economic actors hold different roles in relation not only to different counterparts (one is one’s suppliers’ customer; one’s customers’ supplier), but also in relation to a single counterpart. For example, one economic actor ‘A’ may simultaneously be ( i ) a supplier to another economic actor ‘B’, (ii) as well as a customer of economic actor ‘B’, (iii) as well as a competitor of ‘B’, (iv) as well as a partner with ‘B’ to co- produce value with and for a third economic actor ‘C’, and (v) possibly a competitor with ‘B’s partners, if ‘A’s own alliance with others competes with ‘B’s."
Que relaciono com:
"Aunque las cervecerías artesanales sí compiten una contra la otra en estos distritos cerveceros, sus productos tienden a ser mucho más diferenciados de los de las cervecerías grandes, por lo que la competencia es menos directa.
...
Aproximadamente un 90% de los cerveceros artesanales profesionales empezaron como cerveceros caseros.
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Según el estudio, el espíritu colaborativo y experimental de estos clubs de cerveceros caseros persisten en los distritos de cervecerías artesanales de hoy día."
Trechos retirados de Las cervecerías artesanales están transformando los vecindarios industriales de EEUU.

Como não recordar os temas:

Uma guerra tão antiga quanto a minha vida de consultor, tentar convencer os empresários a fugir desta paranóia que só leva a erosão do preço. Pensar mais na concorrência, esses malvados inimigos, do que nos clientes.

Por isso, a promoção da concorrência imperfeita e dos monopólios informais. Por isso, a crença de que a mentalidade de empresas como Uber, Facebook, Google e Amazon algures vai falhar. Esta mentalidade quer o monopólio da carteira, da atenção do cliente, o promotor da concorrência imperfeita e dos monopólios informais não acredita que faz tudo sozinho, sabe que há coisas em que decidiu não ser bom e, por isso, em certos contextos, em certos ambientes, em certos momentos da vida de um potencial cliente a sua oferta será adequada, noutros não. 

quarta-feira, agosto 16, 2017

O exemplo da cerveja

Um texto, mais um, desta feita de Richard Florida, sobre o exemplo da evolução das cervejas artesanais nos Estados Unidos, "Can Craft Breweries Transform America's Post-Industrial Neighborhoods?".

Democratização da produção, diferenciação e um "live and let live" (empresas do mesmo sector, lado a lado geograficamente, mas que verdadeiramente não se consideram concorrentes, não é um jogo de soma nula, quanto mais o ecossistema criar valor mais todos ganham), regresso da indústria às cidades (um tema recorrente no que vou pensando e encontrando).

BTW, este é um outro exemplo da ascensão de artesãos do futuro:
"the craft beer revolution, ... is highly clustered. The good news is that many of these clusters are taking shape in places that have been subject to disinvestment and deindustrialization.
.
Craft breweries find it beneficial to locate near one another so they can sell each other excess grain and hops, share equipment, and even train one another’s staff. The smallest breweries, in particular, garner large proportions of their revenue from their taprooms. Locating in a thriving brewery district can drive up foot traffic and attract beer tourists.
...
While craft breweries do in fact compete against one another in these brewery districts, their products tend to be much more differentiated than those of the big brewers, making competition less direct.
...
The rise of craft brewing also tracks with a desire, most pronounced among millennial consumers, for “adventure” and “variety” in the products they choose, according to the study.
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Even more importantly, brewpubs and microbreweries provide their neighborhoods with community gathering places, while craft beer brands convey a sense of pride and identity to places that could use a morale boost. And unlike traditional bars, taprooms and brewpubs tend to be family (and sometimes even dog) friendly."

terça-feira, maio 30, 2017

Adeus Okun (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Outro exemplo de como a economia do século XXI difere da economia do século XX. Basta pensar na UNICER e na sua evolução recente "Unicer fecha produção de cerveja em Santarém e centraliza fabrico em Leça do Balio" e comparar com Mongo nos Estados Unidos e a explosão das cervejas artesanais:
"America seems to be toasting her economic recovery with a cold one. After a seven-year slump from 2004 to 2010, the breweries industry (NAICS 312120) reversed direction in a hearty uptick at the end of the recession and has sprung up 44% in the past four years. With 35,675 brewery jobs in 2014 (compared to 26,519 in 2004 and only 24,864 in 2010) and average earnings of $82,044 per job, the industry is clearly in a happy spot.
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Brewery establishments have more than tripled since 2004. This makes sense, given the job growth, but the difference since 2010 is that the establishments are also smaller, spreading out the workforce. In 2004, there were 384 establishments with an average of 69 workers per establishment. In 2014, there were 1,271 establishments with an average of only 30.6 workers per establishment."
Ou de outra forma:
"Combined with already existing and established breweries and brewpubs, craft brewers provided nearly 122,000 jobs, an increase of over 6,000 from the previous year.
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“Small and independent brewers are a beacon for beer and our economy,” added Watson. “As breweries continue to open and volume increases, there is a strong need for workers to fill a whole host of positions at these small and growing businesses.”"
Enquanto o século XX dependia da eficiência o século XXI aposta na preferência.

segunda-feira, março 27, 2017

Aleluia meurmão!!!

Via @hnascim no Twitter cheguei a este texto muito interessante, "Está a começar a revolução do pão em Portugal" bem na linha de "pensem na magia que os muggles não conseguem entender..." de Agosto de 2014.
"“Nos últimos 60 anos, com o aparecimento da levedura industrial, houve uma alteração grande no modo de fabrico do pão nas padarias tradicionais”, explica. “O padeiro ganhou qualidade de vida. Antes, o processo levava pelo menos 12 horas desde que se começava a amassar, a tender, etc. Hoje é tudo mais rápido.” Mas isso teve custos.
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O problema, acredita, é que “começou a haver uma promiscuidade entre a indústria de panificação e os padeiros mais pequenos”. Perante a ofensiva da indústria, com preços muito baixos, os padeiros tradicionais só tinham duas alternativas para sobreviver: baixar a qualidade da matéria-prima ou aumentar a produção. “Assistimos aos artesãos a entrar no mercado da grande indústria e vice-versa”, ou seja, nas grandes superfícies começou a ver-se cada vez mais pães “artesanais”..
Em 2007, o mercado da padaria entrou em crise. “A Associação dos Padeiros disse que tínhamos de aumentar os preços 20 a 30% e as grandes superfícies tinham um anúncio a dizer: ‘Nós não vamos aumentar o preço do pão’.” José Miguel começou a ver que o caminho tinha de ser outro. Nunca uma pequena padaria como a sua poderia concorrer com a indústria que “esmaga completamente os preços”. E percebeu uma coisa: “Nós, os pequenos, temos de entrar pelos nichos de mercado e oferecer muito melhor qualidade. Para nós, é muito mais fácil do que para a indústria montar um processo de produção de 24 horas para o pão.”[Moi ici: Aleluia meurmão!!! Lc 15:7 por cada empresário que descobre esta Verdade e a põe em prática]

quarta-feira, março 22, 2017

Quinino* e Mongo

Artesanal, crescimento orgânico e este gráfico:
Os ingredientes indicados para logo de seguida a metáfora de Mongo surgir na minha mente.
"Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation were equal to 35 per cent of group revenues.
Rivals squeeze less juice from sales.
...
Fever-Tree is mixing with these bruisers as a lightweight with £100m in revenue and just 46 employees. Britvic, with a similar market worth, has 4,000 staff and revenue of £1.4bn.

Over the next few years, Fever-Tree aims to grow organically rather than through acquisition."
Como não pensar na cerveja artesanal...

Trechos e gráfico retirados de "Fever-Tree Drinks: domestic drama"

*Quinino - ingrediente da água tónica que lhe dá o sabor amargo. E que me faz recuar ao final dos anos 60 do século passado e ouvir o meu avô materno a falar dele como remédio em Angola.