Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta critérios de decisão. Mostrar todas as mensagens
Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta critérios de decisão. Mostrar todas as mensagens

quinta-feira, novembro 09, 2023

"the four top villains of decision-making"

"If you think about a normal decision process, it usually proceeds in four steps:

  • You encounter a choice.
  • You analyze your options.
  • You make a choice.
  • Then you live with it.

And what we've seen is that there is a villain that afflicts each of these stages:

  • You encounter a choice. But narrow framing makes you miss options.
  • You analyze your options. But the confirmation bias leads you to gather self-serving information.
  • You make a choice. But short-term emotion will often tempt you to make the wrong one.
  • Then you live with it. But you'll often be overconfident about how the future will unfold.

So, at this point, we know what we're up against. We know the four top villains of decision-making. We also know that the classic pros-and-cons approach is not well suited to fighting these villains; in fact, it doesn't meaningfully counteract any of them."

Trecho retirado de "DECISIVE - How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work" de Chip Heath and Dan Heath.

sexta-feira, agosto 26, 2022

"the way you frame things affects how you make decisions"

"Reframe Your Situation

Most people are loss-averse. Multiple studies demonstrate that the way you frame things affects how you make decisions. The research shows, for instance, that if one treatment for a new disease is described as 95% effective and another as 5% ineffective, people prefer the former even though the two are statistically identical. Every innovation, every change, every transformation—personal or professional—comes with potential upsides and downsides. And though most of us instinctively focus on the latter, it’s possible to shift that mindset and decrease our fear.

One of our favorite ways of doing this is the “infinite game” approach, developed by New York University professor James Carse. His advice is to stop seeing the rules, boundaries, and purpose of the “game” you’re playing—the job you’re after, the project you’ve been assigned, the career path you’re on—as fixed. That puts you in a win-or-lose mentality in which uncertainty heightens your anxiety. In contrast, infinite players recognize uncertainty as an essential part of the game—one that adds an element of surprise and possibility and enables them to challenge their roles and the game’s parameters.

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Chouinard [Moi ici: Fundador da Patagonia] has learned to face uncertainty with courage—and in fact to be energized by it—because he views his role as improving the game, not just playing it. “Managers of a business that want to be around for the next 100 years had better love change,” he advises in his book. “When there [is] no crisis, the wise leader…will invent one.”"

Depois de ler isto, recordar o que é mais comum em Portugal: resistir, chorar, chamar o papá estado, em vez de abraçar a mudança:

Trechos retirados de "How to Overcome Your Fear of the Unknown

sábado, maio 09, 2020

"Quando tem um problema, saca da carteira e compra uma máquina!"

O meu amigo Aranha tem várias frases que caricaturam o comportamento de um certo tipo de empresário português. Recordo daqui uma delas:
"Quando o empresário português tem um problema, saca da carteira e compra uma máquina!"
Ontem lembrei-me desta frase ao ler " Four Tools for Better Decisions" publicado na revista Rotman Management Spring 2020:
"AS A MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT, I’ve seen more than my fair share of ludicrous corporate decisions resulting from hasty leaps to poorly designed solutions. Before becoming a consultant, I was an employee at several companies over the course of 15 years, and I’ve lived through the ramifications of these poor decisions. I’ve seen the sales declines, the layoffs, and the damaged lives.
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Frankly, I’m tired. Tired of seeing leaders jump to conclusions and taking action without really understanding their problem. Tired of seeing leaders arrive at a ‘solution’ that doesn’t solve the real problem at all. Tired of seeing the staggering waste of money and opportunity caused by this knee-jerk approach to problem solving.
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When leadership teams don’t understand the real problem and simply jump to a conclusion, they tend to reach for one of three solutions:
  1. Shiny new technology
  2. Reorganization
  3. Money
If one of these is your answer to a problem — stop. Think again. You may actually be right. You might really need to develop new tech, or create a new organizational structure, or spend more money. But more often than not, you’re about to go down the wrong road. You’ll have a shinier, more expensive, differently organized version of the same problem
that you had before." 

sexta-feira, outubro 18, 2019

"Making quick decisions"

"Better to admit defeat now than after having thrown away hundreds of millions.[Moi ici: Os custos afundados são difíceis de esquecer]
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For any business to thrive, difficult decisions need to be made. This applies not only to new projects but to corporate strategy. John Flint was ejected as HSBC chief executive in August because Mark Tucker, the bank’s chairman, thought he was avoiding hard choices. “The job of the CEO, everyone knows, is to make decisions, ”wrote Ram Charan, a veteran strategy adviser.
 ...
being forced to use intuition after considering the evidence helps to avoid being paralyzed by a question when there is no easy answer.
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There are rewards for being decisive, beyond the risk of the company drifting and you losing your job if you are not. Investors and the media are drawn to confident stories and dislike uncertainty. There is no point in holding a strategy day if you cannot settle on a strategy, or say how it will be executed.
...
Making quick decisions, even informed by experience and expertise, is valuable but not foolproof. As he noted, “intuition feels just the same when it’s wrong and when it’s right, that’s the problem.
Those who consider a challenge from all angles and act prudently and decisively may still be wrong. “Even highly experienced, superbly competent and well-intentioned managers are fallible,”"
Quando penso em decisões rápidas recuo sempre a um mês de Setembro em Felgueiras... empresário sem curso superior, agarrou-me por um braço, meteu-me no carro e levou-me a um subcontratado que tinha arranjado durante as férias, para pôr em prática o que tínhamos discutido no último dia de Julho antes de férias. Pensei nos licenciados que engonham e engonham, quando basta fazer uma experiência.

BTW,


Trecho retirado de "Dyson and the art of making quick decisions"

sexta-feira, setembro 21, 2018

"You have to trust in something"

"This, according to Steve Jobs, is the heart of his approach to making decisions:
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You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something--your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.
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Steve Jobs was aware of something special when he made his decisions: He knew that he didn't know everything.
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As leaders, we often feel pressure to be the smartest person in the room--to know about every move being made, and every piece of information pertinent to our organization. However, this is incredibly unrealistic--no one person can know everything there is to know about an organization in today's increasingly complex and volatile business environment."
 Aquele "You have to trust in something" é aquilo a que há muitos anos aqui chamei, influenciado pelo Paulo Vaz, de "optimismo não documentado", ou que costumo referir nas empresas como: "perder o pé":

quarta-feira, abril 19, 2017

Um punhado de pérolas (II)

Parte I.

"Embrace External Trends.
The outside world can push you into Day 2 if you won’t or can’t embrace powerful trends quickly. If you fight them, you’re probably fighting the future. Embrace them and you have a tailwind.[Moi ici: Abraçar a mudança em vez de lhe resistir]
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These big trends are not that hard to spot (they get talked and written about a lot), but they can be strangely hard for large organizations to embrace.
...
High-Velocity Decision Making...
First, never use a one-size-fits-all decision-making process. Many decisions are reversible, two-way doors. Those decisions can use a light-weight process. For those, so what if you’re wrong? I wrote about this in more detail in last year’s letter.
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Second, most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you’re probably being slow. Plus, either way, you need to be good at quickly recognizing and correcting bad decisions. If you’re good at course correcting, being wrong may be less costly than you think, whereas being slow is going to be expensive for sure."


sábado, novembro 26, 2016

E a sua empresa, também é curiosa?

"And this is my problem with the cognitive sciences and the advice world generally. It’s built on the premise that we are chess masters who make decisions, for good or ill. But when it comes to the really major things we mostly follow our noses. What seems interesting, beautiful, curious and addicting?
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Have you ever known anybody to turn away from anything they found compulsively engaging?
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We don’t decide about life; we’re captured by life. In the major spheres, decision-making, when it happens at all, is downstream from curiosity and engagement. If we really want to understand and shape behavior, maybe we should look less at decision-making and more at curiosity. Why are you interested in the things you are interested in? Why are some people zealously seized, manically attentive and compulsively engaged?"
E penso nos fragilistas e nas suas decisões.

Trecho retirado de "Does Decision-Making Matter?"

quarta-feira, setembro 21, 2016

"to look beyond the economics of the situation"

"Gray areas are situations with high uncertainty and serious human stakes. In these situations, you have to look hard at the economics, but you can’t stop there. You have to approach these problems as a manager and do the best analysis you can, including hard-headed financial analysis. In the end, however, you have to rely on your judgment and resolve these problems as a human being. In these cases, running the numbers and grasping what they tell you is important, but it isn’t enough. With gray area problems, you have to look hard at the economics and look past the economics.
...
it is important, when you face a great area decision, to look beyond the economics of the situation.
...
this important obligation — to earn strong returns — doesn’t override or replace your fundamental duties as a human being. And managers have to be careful that they don’t use their economic obligations as excuses for putting their good judgment aside, narrowing their focus, and ignoring their basic human duties."

Trechos retirados de "The “Maximize Profits” Trap in Decision Making

quinta-feira, fevereiro 11, 2016

Decisions Under Uncertainty

"There are decisions where:
1. Outcomes are known. This is the easiest way to make decisions. If I hold out my hand and drop a ball, it will fall to the ground.
2. Outcomes are unknown, but probabilities are known. This is risk. Think of this as going to Vegas and gambling. Before you set foot at the table, all of the outcomes are known as are the probabilities of each. No outcome surprises an objective third party.
3. Outcomes are unknown and probabilities are unknown. This is uncertainty.
We often think we’re making decisions in #2 but we’re really in #3."
Trechos retirados de "Decisions Under Uncertainty"

quarta-feira, agosto 19, 2015

Poder, decisões e excesso de confiança

"the decisions made by power holders across a multitude of arenas - including businesses, government, religious institutions, and nonprofit organizations - are often marred with overconfidence.
...
urthermore, when powerful leaders are plagued with overconfidence, the consequences for performance can be detrimental. Making important decisions in the absence of adequate information hinders not only one’s own performance and ability to maintain power, but often hurts companies, stockholders, and the general public too,
...
the experience of power exacerbates overconfidence.
...
After experiencing power, individuals pay more attention to positive and rewarding information, and adopt an orientation toward action. Furthermore, recent evidence shows that experiencing an elevated sense of power – defined as the subjective sense that one is powerful and influential, regardless of whether this is actually the case coincides with confidence-inducing states, such as optimism, risk-taking and exaggerated perceptions of control over outcomes. Building on these ideas, we predict that power will, via an elevated subjective sense of power, lead to an overestimation of one’s accuracy in decision-making domains."

Trechos retirados de "Power and overconfident decision-making"

sábado, janeiro 10, 2015

"Achismos"

Ele há cada coisa...
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Estar numa reunião numa empresa, falarem-me da concorrência, falarem-me de como a concorrência é manhosa, matreira e traiçoeira, para justificar o uso dos mesmos métodos que supostamente ela usa.
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Pede-se para ver os números e não existem. Insiste-se e lá se fazem uns filtros na base de dados. Como dão uma imagem fora da caixa, argumenta-se que há alguma coisa mal, ou nos filtros usados ou na introdução dos dados.
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O meu ponto é a importância de tomar decisões com base em dados. Sem dados somos vítimas de tantos "achismos".
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Por exemplo, quem conhece estes dados "O potencial impacto do aumento do salário mínimo no desemprego em gráficos"?
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quarta-feira, abril 17, 2013

E como se minimiza o risco das consequências das decisões tomadas? (parte II)

Parte I.
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E como se minimiza o risco das consequências das decisões tomadas?
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Permitindo que a empresa não fique demasiado dependente das decisões tomadas. Permitindo que a empresa tenha folga para falhar.
"Virtually all of our contemporary institutions – firms, educational institutions and government – have been designed as push systems. While these systems tend to prosper in highly stable times, they do very poorly in times of rapid change and growing uncertainty. They become highly vulnerable to Black Swans, setting cascades and avalanches into motion that amplify and extend the disruptive effects of the initial event. By seeking to remove unpredictability, we are actually becoming more fragile. As Taleb observes: “When you are fragile, you depend on things following the exact planned course, with as little deviation as possible – for deviations are more harmful than helpful. This is why the fragile needs to be very predictive in its approach, and, conversely, predictive systems cause fragility.”
...
One consequence of the Big Shift in the global economy is that push-based systems become increasingly dysfunctional and even dangerous. It’s one of the key reasons why we are seeing sustained deterioration in corporate performance – both in terms of profitability and ultimately even survival. The answer is not to suppress the increasing randomness that accompanies the Big Shift. Instead, we need to craft systems that can grow and improve in the face of randomness and to pursue approaches that will help us to thrive in such systems.
Sem folga para falhar fica-se sem graus de liberdade. Com folga, há tempo para experimentar sem a pressão do tempo e dos resultados. Com folga, tem-se a liberdade para falhar...
"What does Taleb mean by this? He basically means pursuing a bimodal strategy: play it safe in some areas to mitigate the potential impact of negative Black Swans while at the same time taking a lot of small risks in other areas to enhance the benefit of positive Black Swans. Above all, he cautions against playing in the middle – we need to be both aggressive and paranoid in carefully selected areas while avoiding the complacency that the deceptive middle produces.
E este discurso de Taleb é muito parecido com o de Beinhocker:
“Typical strategic planning processes focus on chopping down the branches of the strategic decision tree, eliminating options, and making choices and commitments. In contrast, an evolutionary approach to strategy emphasizes creating choices, keeping options open, and making the tree of possibilities as bushy as possible at any point in time. Options have value. An evolving portfolio of strategic experiments gives the management team more choices, which means better odds that some of the choices will be right” … “The objective is to be able to make lots of small bets, and only make big bets as a part of amplifying successful experiments when uncertainties are much lower.” 
Quando uma empresa, quando um país, tem de mostrar as cartas e está sem graus de liberdade... tem de fazer experiências e, no entanto, não pode falhar nessas experiências que fizer... e quem é que sabe? E quem é que pode prever o futuro? É a corda bamba permanente, é o credo na boca a toda a hora.
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Trechos retirados de "Getting Stronger through Stress: Making Black Swans Work for You"


segunda-feira, abril 15, 2013

E como se minimiza o risco das consequências das decisões tomadas? (parte I)

Quem quiser saber o que penso acerca de competir com base em salários baixos pode pesquisar neste blogue e, concluir que é um caminho que não aconselho e até "combato".
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No entanto, não o acho ilegal. Por isso, muitas vezes uso o "disclaimer":
"Recordo que a competição com base no preço mais baixo é uma abordagem estratégica perfeitamente legal, embora, muitas vezes não seja a mais indicada. Competir pelo preço baixo não é para quem quer é para quem pode."
Também escrevo com regularidade neste blogue acerca do fenómeno da distribuição de produtividades: dentro de um mesmo país, sujeitos às mesmas leis, existe mais variabilidade de desempenho e produtividade entre empresas de um mesmo sector do que entre sectores. Por isso, não defendo a existência de salário mínimo, sobretudo nestes tempos de crise. Muitos empresários não podem pagar mais porque, simplesmente, não têm capacidade de gestão para obter melhores resultados.
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Depois, temos a situação das empresas que operam no mercado interno...
Elas é que precisam da redução da TSU.
O mercado interno estava muito assente em endividamento barato e fácil que, entretanto, desapareceu. Mesmo sem aumento de impostos, o efeito conjugado do fim do crédito fácil e barato e do aumento do desemprego teriam tido sempre um impacte tremendo sobre o nível de consumo interno.
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Esta manhã, a propósito desta notícia "Trabalhadores com salários em atraso triplicaram em 2012" comentei com ironia no Tweeter:
"Se aumentarem o SMN, [o número de trabalhadores com salários em atraso] baixa"
Este comentário gerou uma troca de tweets com mais quatro ou cinco pessoas, duas delas não vêem como é que o aumento do salário mínimo (SMN) contribui para o aumento do número de trabalhadores com salários em atraso. O ponto deste postal não tem nada a ver com isto mas com o que se segue.
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A certa altura, uma dessas pessoas defendeu que as dificuldades que a maior parte das empresas sofrem hoje, resultam de os seus gestores não terem tomado decisões razoáveis no passado.
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Horas depois, a conduzir, a frase voltou para me questionar:
"sabemos mto bem que a maior parte ñ toma decisões sequer razoáveis"
Podemos discutir:
  • o como é que sabemos? 
  • o como é que sabemos que é a maior parte?
  • o como é que sabemos o que são decisões razoáveis?
- Pára aí! O que são decisões razoáveis?
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E foi com um sorriso irónico que me recordei do que tinha preparado para sair neste postal.
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O que são decisões razoáveis? Como é que sabemos o que é uma decisão razoável? E o mundo é assim tão previsível e racional que saibamos o que é acertado?
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- Pára aí! Se não sabes o que são decisões razoáveis, como podes ser consultor de empresas e ter  vergonha na cara? Como podes acreditar que podes ajudar as empresas a formular estratégias adequadas? Na verdade, outra forma de dizer "ajudar as empresas a tomar decisões razoáveis"!!!
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O que faço, a facilitação que realizo não garante resultados. É impossível garantir resultados!!!
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Procuro seguir esta metodologia, para minimizar o risco e aumentar a probabilidade das decisões tomadas resultarem. Contudo, a priori ninguém pode classificar qualquer acção como "condenada a ter sucesso". O mundo está cheio de emoção, está cheio de paixão e, também, de alguma racionalidade, por isso, é impossível garantir que uma decisão que parece razoável, segundo certos critérios, produza bons resultados. Por isso, uso os geradores de cenários, para testar o que é que pode acontecer... 
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Dêem-se as voltas que se dêem, a conclusão é sempre a mesma, não se pode garantir que uma decisão resulte.
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Então, a minha mente voou para esta mensagem de Nassim Taleb:
"If we want to prosper and cultivate the ability to grow through stress, we need to honor the practitioners and suspect the theoreticians."
E recuei muito mais atrás até Beinhocker e aos seus arbustos!
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Se é impossível garantir à partida o sucesso das decisões tomadas e, se o mundo muda a velocidades cada vez mais vertiginosas, como é que as empresas podem aumentar a sua taxa de sucesso?
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As empresas têm de tomar decisões e experimentar, apesar de constituídas por humanos, (tão ao jeito do Eclesiastes). Decidir não mudar, quando o mundo muda é desastre quase assegurado! Decidir mudar é sempre arriscado!
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Como minimizar o risco de se tomar uma decisão errada?
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Seguindo uma metodologia que procure conciliar aquilo que uma empresa é com aquilo que são as oportunidades e ameaças existentes no meio abiótico onde opera.
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E como se minimiza o risco das consequências das decisões tomadas?
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E volto a Nassim Taleb e a Beinhocker... com lições para os países.
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Continua.

quarta-feira, junho 20, 2007

Nas costas dos outros vêmos as nossas costas

As peripécias em torno da OTA, o que elas revelam sobre as metodologias de estudo e tomada de decisão pela nossa estrutura de poder (independentemente dos partidos políticos), pôem-me em sintonia com o sentido desta questão que Vasco Graça Moura coloca no DN de hoje:

"Foram medidas as consequências de tudo isto para o nosso país? Qual vai ser a posição de Portugal quanto a estes pontos?"