How many times, for Heaven's sake? Austerity isn't a punishment forced on voters by sadists. It's what happens when we still have a deficit.— Daniel Hannan (@DanielJHannan) June 14, 2017
"In a 1990 paper, “Entrepreneurship: Productive, Unproductive, and Destructive,” Baumol argued that the level of entrepreneurial ambition in a country is essentially fixed over time, [Moi ici: A pool de empreendedores tem uma dimensão constante, se os incentivos reduzem a incerteza, é natural que diminua a quantidade de genuínos empreendedores] and that what determines a nation’s entrepreneurial output is the incentive structure that governs and directs entrepreneurial efforts between “productive” and “unproductive” endeavors.E genuinamente sem querer entrar na política partidária, talvez durante o tempo da troika, com a redução forçada dos incentivos, por falta de dinheiro e não por ideologia, a tal pool constante de empreendedores teve de se virar para os "“Schumpeterian” entrepreneurs".
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Most people think of entrepreneurship as being the “productive” kind, as Baumol referred to it, where the companies that founders launch commercialize something new or better, benefiting society and themselves in the process. A sizable body of research establishes that these “Schumpeterian” entrepreneurs, those that are “creatively destroying” the old in favor of the new, are critical for breakthrough innovations and rapid advances in productivity and standards of living.
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Baumol was worried, however, by a very different sort of entrepreneur: the “unproductive” ones, who exploit special relationships with the government to construct regulatory moats, secure public spending for their own benefit, or bend specific rules to their will, in the process stifling competition to create advantage for their firms. Economists call this rent-seeking behavior."
"Step 2: Clarify desired outcomes of customers and stakeholders"
Esta representação é diferente da que uso há mais de 10 anos:
"By defining desired outcomes, the organization gained clarity on how best to use SIC to influence sales force behavior
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Success was now clearly defined from the customer and stakeholder viewpoint. Multiple planning scenarios could be developed to discover/invent the optimal option based on core competencies and execution capabilities.
The organization realized that each target required a different approach.
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Success was now defined as attaining customer and stakeholder outcomes rather than execution of projects within the traditional “triple constraints”–time, cost and quality. This provided a better guidance on when to invest in a struggling project and when to redeploy resources."
"China’s competitiveness.A new study finds that hourly wages in China’s manufacturing sector are now higher than those in every Latin American country other than Chile and are nearing the level found in some of the Eurozone’s lower-income countries such as Portugal and Greece. This is a sea change from just a decade ago, when China’s wages were among the lowest in the world. It means that living standards in China have risen substantially. It also means that China’s competitive advantage no longer stems simply from low labor costs. Rather, it stems from other factors such as the skill level of workers, the degree to which workers use technology, the supply of skilled managers, the transport and power infrastructure, and the legal framework. The study found that the productivity of Chinese manufacturing workers actually increased faster than wages. This means that unit labor costs in China (the labor cost of producing a unit of output) declined over the past decade, thereby increasing China’s competitiveness."E ainda:
"This will cause a further shift in the composition of Chinese manufacturing, away from low-value-added processes such as apparel and textile production toward higher-value-added processes."A competitividade aumenta não porque se produz mais depressa o que se produzia antes (mexidas no denominador) mas porque se passa a produzir outro tipo de artigos (numerador).
"A new study finds that hourly wages in China’s manufacturing sector are now higher than those in every Latin American country other than Chile and are nearing the level found in some of the Eurozone’s lower-income countries such as Portugal and Greece. [Moi ici: O bloco de países de Leste referido na apresentação da Parte I não está incluído na zona euro] This is a sea change from just a decade ago, when China’s wages were among the lowest in the world. It means that living standards in China have risen substantially. It also means that China’s competitive advantage no longer stems simply from low labor costs."Continua.
"Os gastos com os animais de estimação representam, em média, 12% do orçamento familiar dos portugueses."Para reflexão!
"As exportações portuguesas de vinho estão a crescer 8,1% em valor e 3,9% em volume. Os dados são do primeiro trimestre e mostram que Portugal vendeu 625 983 hectolitros no valor de 163,3 milhões de euros."Sinal de subida na escala de valor. Um bom sinal!
"Our study revealed that future projections are intimately tied to interpretations of the past and the present. Strategy making amid volatility thus involves constructing and reconstructing strategic narratives that reimagine the past and present in ways that allow the organization to explore multiple possible futures."Comparar com o texto da parte I:
"No esquema, começo (passado) com a indústria portuguesa em 1985, passo pela adesão à CEE, passo pela adesão dos países da Europa de Leste à UE e da China à OMC, continuo pelo reshoring motivado pela rapidez e flexibilidade, chego à actualidade (presente) com a subida dos custos na China e a industrialização massiva na Europa de Leste por estes dias e continuo com os desafios que podem advir (futuro) da evolução actual."E continuando a sublinhar:
"we found that strategy making was about constructing new narratives that tie together interpretations of the past, present and future. That is, effective projections of the future must be connected to resonant understandings of the present and past."Continua.
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To develop a new strategic direction for a company during a time of change, managers need to create a strategic narrative that links the company’s past, present and future. Crafting a strategic narrative involves reimagining future possibilities, rethinking the company’s past and reevaluating present concerns."
"É interessante constatar que o saldo estrutural primário (o tal que depende das decisões discricionárias de política orçamental) melhorou, entre 2010 e 2014, de um défice de 7% do PIB para um excedente de 2,7% do PIB. Esta tendência de melhoria foi interrompida em 2015, com uma deterioração de 0,5 pp no saldo, para 2,2% do PIB. Isto é, também em 2015, com o Governo anterior, a política orçamental foi expansionista. Esta posição prolongou-se por 2016, já com o actual Governo, com o saldo a recuar de 2,2% para 1,9% do PIB. A melhoria estrutural do défice foi feita até 2014. Nos últimos dois anos, tivemos políticas orçamentais expansionistas pró-cíclicas. Isto é, numa fase de expansão do ciclo económico, que por si só ajudou a reduzir o défice, a política orçamental "empurrou" ainda mais a expansão da actividade (isto depois das dificuldades provocadas por políticas restritivas pró-cíclicas forçadas, em 2012-13). Idealmente, a política orçamental deveria assumir um papel estabilizador."Trecho retirado de "Contas públicas: "What lies beneath""
"Strategy execution is a set of interlinked activities [Moi ici: ] that convert business strategy into effective operations. In most companies this is the sequential process starting with defining the business strategy and then trying to execute it, an approach that often falters.
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A COAR-map framework (Customer, Objectives, Activities and Resources) clarifies the execution imperatives in this case.[1] A COAR map is built around a set of internal objectives that are the keys for delivering customer values profitably. They identify:
Managers can use COAR maps to graphically link the activities and resources that support these objectives.
- Customers’ and stakeholders’ outcomes.
- Objectives (core and competitive).
- Activities.
- Resources that collectively form the execution capabilities.
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Core objectives and customer outcomes – the need for clarity
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The starting point of making a COAR map is articulating the desired customer and stakeholder outcomes. Identifying customer outcomes gives managers insight into what customers truly value. Identifying specific outcomes forces a business to explain how it will deliver value to the customer differently than the other industry participants. Next businesses identify the internal core objectives that can deliver the value with the highest probability of profits. A core objective will be a specific and measurable output generated by the company. It will not only identify the output but also clarify for all members of the organization how it captures the part of the value that the customer is willing to pay for and what everyone has to do individually and collectively to deliver the core objectives.
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In addition, it is imperative that company managers understand trade-offs that must be made during execution. This is clarified by establishing precisely who customers are and the capabilities that must be invested to meet core objectives.
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Visualizing the process through the COAR maps brings execution issues to the surface at the design stage. By using the COAR map to visualize the capabilities needed for execution, executives can estimate whether the current assets and investments can achieve the core internal objectives. It is this “peek forward” into a virtual execution setting, and the opportunity to use it as a scenario-like tool to test alternatives, that increases the likelihood that managers will devise a stable and executable strategy."
"Já ouvi várias vezes a Daniel Bessa esta frase: “quando as empresas querem justificar investimentos que não têm racionalidade dizem que se trata de investimentos estratégicos”.Trechos retirados de "Mãos ao ar! Isto é um negócio em nome do “interesse nacional”!"
É assim, de facto, nos privados. Quando entramos no perímetro do Estado, o tique é invocar-se o “interesse nacional” para justificar medidas ou investimentos onde se verifica uma de duas coisas (ou ambas, quando a coisa é mesmo má): falta de sustentação à luz de qualquer racionalidade que possa ser medida; ou um risco tão elevado que enormes perdas estão quase garantidas.
Ora, como o “interesse nacional” é suposto não ter preço, a sua invocação dispensa os seus alegados defensores dessa coisa aborrecida que é fazer contas que tenham sentido.
É precisamente isto que está a acontecer com a pressão para a entrada da Santa Casa da Misericórdia no capital do Montepio Geral, o que só nos pode deixar muito preocupados.
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Já vai sendo tempo de salvar o país e os portugueses das garras desse maldito “interesse nacional” que só nos traz problemas e novas contas para pagar."
"For the creator who seeks to make something new, something better, something important, everywhere you look is something unsatisfying.
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The dissatisfaction is fuel. Knowing you can improve it, realizing that you can and will make things better—the side effect is that today isn't what it could be.
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You can't ignore the dissatisfaction, can't pretend the situation doesn't exist, not if you want to improve things.
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Living in dissatisfaction today is the price we pay for the obligation to improve things tomorrow."
"Remember when it was amazing that Amazon offered free two-day shipping? Then free one-day shipping? Now for many products, it’s a matter of hours before your order is on your doorstep.
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Amazon is constantly upping the ante. It doesn’t just cut costs. It uses technology to do more, delighting customers with better service and lower prices. And of course, Amazon’s customers respond by buying more products. Amazon grows faster, invests more, and delights more customers, who buy more, in a virtuous circle.[Moi ici comparar com o que sentimos acerca dos impostos e dos serviços públicos que supostamente são suportados por esse saque]
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Amazon reminds us again and again that it isn’t technology that eliminates jobs, it is the short-sighted business decisions that use technology simply to cut costs and fatten corporate profits.[Moi ici: Isto depois do autor demonstrar que quanto mais robôs a Amazon adquire para os seus armazéns mais pessoas contrata]
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This is the master design pattern for applying technology: Do more. Do things that were previously unimaginable.[Moi ici: Só assim se consegue subir na escala de valor, só assim se ganha o que Marn e Rosiello previam com o aumento do preço]
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As logistics and delivery become more automated, and costs continue to fall, what other kinds of services might be completely rethought, putting people to work delighting each other with currently unimaginable products or levels of service?[Moi ici: Isto é a tal vantagem humana da interacção, da proximidade, da co-criação]
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There is an enormous failure of imagination among those who think that we face a jobless future.[Moi ici: Conjugar esta abordagem baseada na interacção e na arte, com Mongo e a explosão de tribos e com o encolhimento populacional]
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Whenever one thing becomes commoditized, something else becomes valuable."[Moi ici: Recordar "When something is commoditized, an adjacent market becomes valuable"]
"Carlos Tavares, que no final do ano passado assumiu funções como assessor da administração da Caixa Geral de Depósitos, concordou que, "de facto, hoje o que resta à política económica é criar os incentivos correctos ou, pelo menos, não criar os incentivos errados". E recordou que "muita da má afectação de investimento deve-se a incentivos de política e regulatórios errados e que encaminham o investimento para os sectores errados". Aliás, acrescentou, "o próprio Estado foi um grande investidor no sector não transaccionável e acumulámos uma grande dívida pública e privada para investir em sectores que não foram os mais eficientes"."Primeiro não existem sectores errados. Todos os sectores são necessários numa economia saudável.
"Primum non nocere"Ou seja (recordando Nassim Taleb em Antifragile):
"what is called in Latin via negativa, the negative way, after theological traditions, particularly in the Eastern Orthodox Church. Via negativa does not try to express what God is - leave that to the primitive brand of contemporary thinkers and philosophasters with scientistic tendencies. It just lists what God is not and proceeds by the process of elimination.
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Recall that the interventionista focuses on positive action - doing. Just like positive definitions, we saw that acts of commission are respected and glorified by our primitive minds and lead to, say, naive government interventions that end in disaster, followed by generalized complaints about naive government interventions, as these, it is now accepted, end in disaster, followed by more naive government interventions. Acts of omission, not doing something, are not considered acts and do not appear to be part of one’s mission. ... I have used all my life a wonderfully simple heuristic: charlatans are recognizable in that they will give you positive advice, and only positive advice, exploiting our gullibility and sucker-proneness for recipes that hit you in a flash as just obvious, then evaporate later as you forget them.
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in practice it is the negative that’s used by the pros, those selected by evolution: chess grandmasters usually win by not losing; people become rich by not going bust (particularly when others do); religions are mostly about interdicts; the learning of life is about what to avoid. You reduce most of your personal risks of accident thanks to a small number of measures.
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So the central tenet of the epistemology I advocate is as follows: we know a lot more what is wrong than what is right, or, phrased according to the fragile/robust classification, negative knowledge (what is wrong, what does not work) is more robust to error than positive knowledge (what is right, what works). So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition—given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily."
