sexta-feira, junho 16, 2017

Curiosidade do dia

"Se anualizarmos a taxa de crescimento trimestral, método utilizado nos EUA, a economia portuguesa está a crescer a mais de 4% ao ano. Em quanto ficará em 2017, não sei.
.
Suponhamos que vai ficar em 3%. Ora o orçamento para 2017 tem como objetivo um défice de 1,6% do PIB com base num crescimento de 1,5%. Que acontecerá ao défice se o crescimento da economia for superior? Terá de ser menor: haverá mais receita de impostos e menos despesa, por exemplo em subsídio de desemprego. A cábula diz que, por cada ponto percentual de crescimento a mais, o défice tem de ser meio ponto a menos. Por exemplo se o crescimento for de 3% em 2017 o défice terá de ficar em 0,8% do PIB: 3 menos 1,5 dá 1,5, cuja metade é 0,75; finalmente, 1,6 menos 0,75= dá 0,8 (arredondado). Ou seja, o crescimento “adicional” da economia em 2017 conduziria a um défice que é metade do que está no orçamento! Se esta redução não ocorrer então quer dizer que o governo se apropriou dos “dividendos do crescimento” seja aumentando despesa, para lá do orçamentado, ou reduzindo impostos. O “há mais vida para além do défice” terá então triunfado sobre a consolidação orçamental. Não seria bom pois, inter alia, a dívida não teria sido reduzida tanto como poderia ter sido."
Trecho retirado de "O genial amigo: o défice excessivo"

COAR-map e mapas da estratégia (parte V)

Parte Iparte IIparte III e parte IV.

"Step 4: Clarify core objectives
The organization next turned to the question of identifying “success” in using SIC as a lever to influence the sales force behavior. The success measures are termed Core Objectives.
The Core Objectives (see Exhibit 10) served as a platform to unify the various stakeholders who have to collaborate in meeting the customer (sales force) outcomes. By establishing common goals, Cisco could develop new business processes focused on improving collaboration.
Exhibit 11 shows how the Core Objectives align with the competitive objectives and the customer and stakeholder outcomes."
Olho para isto e vejo a relação com:
Que uso quando desenvolvo mapas da estratégia.


Continua.

 Trechos retirados de "How strategy execution maps guided Cisco System’s Sales Incentive Compensation plan"

Cenários e estratégia (parte V)

Parte Iparte IIparte III e parte IV,

"First, making strategy is not about accurate forecasting. You must consider the multiple interpretations of present concerns and historical trajectories that help to constitute  those forecasts.
...
Second, achieving an innovative future is not about forgetting the past. Some people have suggested that new strategies require strategic “forgetting,” so that organizations are not anchored in old ways of doing things.
...
Constructing new narratives is a way to achieve change while at the same time showing how the new strategy achieves some form of continuity with a (reimagined) past. In other words, history matters — but not in the way you might think. The past is not a singular guide to the future. In fact, it is the multiplicity and ambiguity of experiences of the past that enable the different interpretations that can generate innovative alternatives.
Third, strategy making is not about getting the “right” narrative. It’s about getting a narrative that is good enough for now, so that the organization can move forward and take action in uncertain times. This recognizes that strategy will in some ways always be evolving and “emergent.” Our view of strategy making suggests that the narratives that managers construct will shape the direction of future actions, just as those actions, in turn, will lead to further reconfiguring of the company’s strategic narratives over time.
Fourth, breakdowns in the strategy-making process are not failures but rather opportunities for learning and for reconfiguring the strategic narrative.
...
A model of strategy making that focuses on strategic narratives provides insights into a long-standing puzzle about the sources of competitive advantage: Is company performance mainly derived from luck or managerial foresight? Evidence from our field study suggests that both past legacies and future projections shape future outcomes."

O tempo que agora vivemos

Recuar a Outubro de 2011 e a "Recordar Lawrence... nada está escrito (parte X)" onde se mencionava: "Made in America, Again - Why Manufacturing Will Return to the U.S.".

Nesse texto podia ler-se:
"The conditions are coalescing for another U.S. resurgence. Rising wages, shipping costs, and land prices—combined with a strengthening renminbi—are rapidly eroding China’s cost advantages. The U.S., meanwhile, is becoming a lower-cost country. Wages have declined or are rising only moderately. The dollar is weakening. The workforce is becoming increasingly flexible. Productivity growth continues.
.
Our analysis concludes that, within five years, the total cost of production for many products will be only about 10 to 15 percent less in Chinese coastal cities than in some parts of the U.S. where factories are likely to be built. Factor in shipping, inventory costs, and other considerations, and—for many goods destined for the North American market—the cost gap between sourcing in China and manufacturing in the U.S. will be minimal. In some cases, companies will move work to inland China to find lower wages. But this will not be an attractive option in many indus- tries. Chinese cities in the interior provinces lack the abundance of skilled workers, supply networks, and efficient transportation infrastructure of those along the coast, offsetting much of the savings afforded by slightly lower labor costs."
É este o tempo que agora vivemos, o "within five years, the cost gap between sourcing in China and manufacturing in the U.S. will be minimal."

O fim da China como a fábrica do mundo, a re-industrialização vai acelerar.



Sandy vs MacGyver ou Espirais recessivas e outras patranhas

"It is often underappreciated just how quickly a country’s fortunes can change. In 2004, Germany was considered the sick man of Europe. Five years later, after some judicious reforms to its labor market, it was Europe’s economic powerhouse. Four years ago, Spain was widely dismissed as an economic basket case, one step away from national bankruptcy and euro exit. Yet since mid-2013, it has been growing at around 3% a year and created two million jobs.
.
That points to a second aspect to economic turnarounds: They are rarely obvious at the time, even to the economists, policy makers and pundits paid to spot these things. Famously, 364 distinguished economists—among them Mervyn King, who later became governor of the Bank of England—wrote to the Times in 1981 to warn that Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s policies were doomed to fail. Yet history shows that Britain’s recovery began at almost exactly that moment, and five years later its economy was booming."(1)
Basta recordar o economista Cavaco Silva, então presidente da república a prever a tal "espiral recessiva". Este anónimo da província, ao mesmo tempo escrevia:

Ao longo dos anos escrevi aqui no blogue tantas e tantas vezes previsões ao arrepio das previsões dos economistas, dos académicos e comentadores, e quase sempre acertei: acerca do desemprego; acerca das exportações; acerca das estratégias; acerca do euro; acerca de ...

Entretanto encontro estes trechos:
"E]conomics and business are not the same subject, and mastery of one does not ensure comprehension, let alone mastery of the other. A successful business leader is no more likely to be an expert on economics than on military strategy:. As we have seen, companies do not appear very often in international trade theories, with one or two exceptions?' However, if anyone is to gain a clear perspective on what is happening in the real world, that has got to change.
...
William Milberg and Deborah Winkler comment that 'there are considerable limits to the economists' own models. In particular, the economists' views on offshoring are closely tied to an outmoded theory of comparative advantage'.. The main problem is that the economic models don't capture the broader institutional context, including company strategy or the actions of governments to regulate products and trade. We have to look at what companies are doing — they are the main actors in our drama — rather than being led by either the claims of countries or the outputs of models."

Economistas pensam em modelos...

Há meses CEO disse a propósito de um procedimento para validação de investimentos na sua empresa:
- Se perguntar ao meu pai porque optou há 8 anos por investir uma pipa de massa numa máquina fora da caixa, quando o mercado estava em crise, e que agora dá-nos o pão nosso de cada dia, ele diria que  "teve um feeling".

Economistas pensam em modelos, como a Sandy, empresários pensam como MacGyver:
"Well, I say we trust our instincts—go with our gut. You can't program that. That's our edge."

(2) - Trechos retirados de "From Global to Local" de Finbarr Livesey

quinta-feira, junho 15, 2017

Curiosidade do dia

Outro decoupling em vista?

De um lado a economia real:

E quanto melhor correr a economia real na Europa menos justificação tem o BCE para continuar a praticar o QE. Como irá correr? "Why Portugal has confounded the bond sceptics"

Cenários e estratégia (parte IV)

Parte Iparte II e parte III.


"The past, present and future were thus all interpreted and reinterpreted in the CommCorp strategy-making process, and these interpretations were multiple, interdependent — and sometimes conflicting.
...
New visions of the future also triggered reconsiderations of current concerns.
...
The more the participants reconsidered present concerns, the greater the tensions that arose. However, it was through such interactions that new connections were built among the past, present and future.
...
A particular view of the future shaped and was shaped by certain understandings of history and present priorities. Envisioning new futures provoked reassessments of the past and present, just as new understandings of current concerns triggered new imaginings of the future and alternative versions of history. Negotiating these interpretive differences proved to be central to strategy making in practice"
Fundamental esta experiência repetida de sondar, criar uma narrativa e pôr a empresa em cheque, testar mentalmente como será viver no futuro hipotético e como será a preparação para esse futuro.

Continua.


"Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives"

COAR-map e mapas da estratégia (parte IV)

Parte Iparte II e parte III.
"Step 3: Clarify competitive objectivesAfter identifying the customer and stakeholder outcomes, the next step is to identify the competitive objectives that need to be achieved to gain a sustained competitive advantage in the marketplace.
...
This graphic enabled managers to see why investments had to be matched with the desired outcomes. For example, time, money and effort spent on simply increasing the untargeted productivity of the sales force were unlikely to effectively produce the desired behavior."
Continua.

 Trechos retirados de "How strategy execution maps guided Cisco System’s Sales Incentive Compensation plan"

'Playing Not to Lose Syndrome'

Mateus 25, 14:30
"His business suffered from slowing growth, systemic service problems, and aggressive and new competitors.
.
However, he seemed unable or unwilling to alter his course. He was worried about changing too much and possibly making things worse. So, he chose to stay the course. Now, here he was having dinner with me, losing his company and unemployed.
...
This senior executive is a perfect example of a person who has the 'Playing Not to Lose Syndrome.' Instead of striving to win and thrive in business, he was merely hoping not to lose and make it through one more day.
...
The real problem with doing just enough to get by and no more is that, like a person treading water, it ultimately doesn't work. At some point, you must swim to shore, or you will drown.
.
People believe that if they keep their heads down, nothing will change. Yet they lose anyway and what they are trying so hard to protect gets blown up in the end. And yet, the human tendency is to hold tighter and tighter to the status quo as though it were a security blanket--not understanding that it's smothering them!"

Trechos retirados de "How Avoiding Harsh Realities Cost These Leaders Their Business"

I rest my case: competitividade e CUT (parte IX)

 Parte Iparte IIparte IIIparte IV, parte V, parte VIparte VII e parte VIII.

O que significa aumentar a produtividade através da redução do denominador (através do aumento da eficiência)?
Significa aumentar a competitividade mantendo a qualidade, o tipo das saídas. Significa subir ao longo do pico na paisagem competitiva.

O que significa aumentar a produtividade através do aumento do numerador? (através do aumento da eficácia)?
Significa aumentar a competitividade alterando a qualidade, o tipo das saídas. Significa "desistir" do pico onde se está e optar por competir num outro pico.

Acham que a a empresa "verde" compete com a empresa "azul"?

Lembram-se das toutinegras, ou rouxinóis(?) de McArthur?
Acham que elas competem entre si?

A empresa azul está num campeonato diferente do da empresa verde. Não faz sentido comparar os parâmetros de uma empresa que compete num pico com os de outra que compete num outro pico na paisagem competitiva e argumentar que uma é mais ou menos competitiva que outra.

Por exemplo, a empresa verde pode ser a empresa que vendia sapatos a 20€ e deixou de ser competitiva nesse pico e mudou de vida para hoje ter sucesso a vender sapatos a 230€. Será que essa empresa verde compete com as empresas chinesas que produzem sapatos que são vendidos a 10€ nas sapatarias portuguesas?

Agora imaginemos que a empresa verde é alemã e a empresa azul é grega. Continuam a não competir ente si, mesmo que os salários dos alemães cresçam mais depressa.

O que pode fazer com a empresa verde mude de ideias e resolva voltar para o outro pico onde está a empresa azul?

Continua.


quarta-feira, junho 14, 2017

Curiosidade do dia



Ultimamente tenho pensado na Lei de Rhodes e nos que não queriam participar.

Como ler e não pensar

Como ler "Is America Encouraging the Wrong Kind of Entrepreneurship?" e:
  • não pensar na década longa de estímulo à economia não transaccionável e na consequência disso;
  • não pensar na demência introduzida pela Política Agrícola Comum que leva a produzir sempre mais do que o mercado precisa e recompensar por isso;
  • não pensar na recente política do Governo português de agir como business angel e apoiar o empreendedorismo de alto risco;
  • não pensar nos empreendedores mais preocupados com os programas de apoio do que em seduzir clientes pagantes;
  • ...
"In a 1990 paper, “Entrepreneurship: Productive, Unproductive, and Destructive,” Baumol argued that the level of entrepreneurial ambition in a country is essentially fixed over time, [Moi ici: A pool de empreendedores tem uma dimensão constante, se os incentivos reduzem a incerteza, é natural que diminua a quantidade de genuínos empreendedores] and that what determines a nation’s entrepreneurial output is the incentive structure that governs and directs entrepreneurial efforts between “productive” and “unproductive” endeavors.
.
Most people think of entrepreneurship as being the “productive” kind, as Baumol referred to it, where the companies that founders launch commercialize something new or better, benefiting society and themselves in the process. A sizable body of research establishes that these “Schumpeterian” entrepreneurs, those that are “creatively destroying” the old in favor of the new, are critical for breakthrough innovations and rapid advances in productivity and standards of living.
.
Baumol was worried, however, by a very different sort of entrepreneur: the “unproductive” ones, who exploit special relationships with the government to construct regulatory moats, secure public spending for their own benefit, or bend specific rules to their will, in the process stifling competition to create advantage for their firms. Economists call this rent-seeking behavior."
E genuinamente sem querer entrar na política partidária, talvez durante o tempo da troika, com a redução forçada dos incentivos, por falta de dinheiro e não por ideologia, a tal pool constante de empreendedores teve de se virar para os "“Schumpeterian” entrepreneurs".

Para os jornais supostamente económicos, e para os jornais generalistas, a economia era e é o que sobra do PSI 20 (recordar aqui e aqui):

  • BRISA; EDP; PT; BES; ...
Tudo empresas que chegaram ao ponto a que sabemos

Só falta chegarmos às produtoras de pasta de papel...

COAR-map e mapas da estratégia (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"Step 2: Clarify desired outcomes of customers and stakeholders"
Esta representação é diferente da que uso há mais de 10 anos:
"By defining desired outcomes, the organization gained clarity on how best to use SIC to influence sales force behavior
...
Success was now clearly defined from the customer and stakeholder viewpoint. Multiple planning scenarios could be developed to discover/invent the optimal option based on core competencies and execution capabilities.
􏰀 The organization realized that each target required a different approach.
...
Success was now defined as attaining customer and stakeholder outcomes rather than execution of projects within the traditional “triple constraints”–time, cost and quality. This provided a better guidance on when to invest in a struggling project and when to redeploy resources."

Continua.

 Trechos retirados de "How strategy execution maps guided Cisco System’s Sales Incentive Compensation plan"





I rest my case: competitividade e CUT (parte VIII)

 Parte Iparte IIparte IIIparte IV, parte V, parte VI e parte VII.

Quem segue este blogue sabe como há milénios estamos completamente à parte do mainstream acerca da competitividade e da sua relação com os custos unitários de trabalho. Recordar como este anónimo da província ganhou a Olivier Blanchard. O que se segue é relativo à China mas aplica-se o mesmo que costumamos escrever aqui desde sempre sobre a Alemanha.


Desta apresentação retirei:


Os académicos e outros membros da tríade quando comentam a realidade económica comentam-na como se a paisagem se mantivesse constante. Como se o numerador da equação da produtividade se mantivesse constante e a única hipótese de aumentar a produtividade passasse por reduzir os custos, ou seja reduzir o denominador.

Quando os salários sobem, mas o valor criado cresce mais depressa, a competitividade aumenta mesmo assim e os custos unitários de trabalho baixam.


"China’s competitiveness.A new study finds that hourly wages in China’s manufacturing sector are now higher than those in every Latin American country other than Chile and are nearing the level found in some of the Eurozone’s lower-income countries such as Portugal and Greece. This is a sea change from just a decade ago, when China’s wages were among the lowest in the world. It means that living standards in China have risen substantially. It also means that China’s competitive advantage no longer stems simply from low labor costs. Rather, it stems from other factors such as the skill level of workers, the degree to which workers use technology, the supply of skilled managers, the transport and power infrastructure, and the legal framework. The study found that the productivity of Chinese manufacturing workers actually increased faster than wages. This means that unit labor costs in China (the labor cost of producing a unit of output) declined over the past decade, thereby increasing China’s competitiveness."
E ainda:
"This will cause a further shift in the composition of Chinese manufacturing, away from low-value-added processes such as apparel and textile production toward higher-value-added processes." 
A competitividade aumenta não porque se produz mais depressa o que se produzia antes (mexidas no denominador) mas porque se passa a produzir outro tipo de artigos (numerador).

Trecho retirado de "China: Changing drivers for competitiveness Global Economic Outlook, Q2 2017"

Cenários e estratégia (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Parece de propósito! O que incluí na Parte I, o receio de que o reshoring já esteja a ser mais por causa do preço do que outra coisa, e isto que acabo de encontrar:
"A new study finds that hourly wages in China’s manufacturing sector are now higher than those in every Latin American country other than Chile and are nearing the level found in some of the Eurozone’s lower-income countries such as Portugal and Greece. [Moi ici: O bloco de países de Leste referido na apresentação da Parte I não está incluído na zona euro] This is a sea change from just a decade ago, when China’s wages were among the lowest in the world. It means that living standards in China have risen substantially. It also means that China’s competitive advantage no longer stems simply from low labor costs."
Continua.


Trecho retirado de "China: Changing drivers for competitiveness Global Economic Outlook, Q2 2017"

Esta fonte ainda vai servir para mais um episódio de "I rest my case: competitividade e CUT"

terça-feira, junho 13, 2017

Curiosidade do dia

"Os gastos com os animais de estimação representam, em média, 12% do orçamento familiar dos portugueses."
Para reflexão!

Trecho retirado de "Quanto gastam os portugueses com animais de estimação?"

Portugal continua a fazer bem!

"As exportações portuguesas de vinho estão a crescer 8,1% em valor e 3,9% em volume. Os dados são do primeiro trimestre e mostram que Portugal vendeu 625 983 hectolitros no valor de 163,3 milhões de euros."
Sinal de subida na escala de valor. Um bom sinal!

Recordar:


Práticas esquisitas

Ás vezes encontro organizações com muitos recursos, verdadeiras multinacionais, mas com práticas tão esquisitas ...

Por exemplo:
Empresa realiza no final do ano entrevista de avaliação do desempenho de cada funcionário. Durante essa entrevista são identificadas as necessidades de formação de cada funcionário. A partir da consolidação das necessidades identificadas elabora-se uma lista de potenciais acções de formação que após uma negociação com as chefias dá origem a um Plano Anual de Formação.

Onde entram aqui as prioridades estratégicas? Onde entram aqui as lacunas nos processos críticos para a estratégia? Onde entra aqui a caminhada da empresa?

Cenários e estratégia (parte II)

Parte I.

Já depois de feito o esquema matinal referido na parte I, no Domingo à tarde durante uma caminhada tive oportunidade de reler "Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives" e sublinhar:
"Our study revealed that future projections are intimately tied to interpretations of the past and the present. Strategy making amid volatility thus involves constructing and reconstructing strategic narratives that reimagine the past and present in ways that allow the organization to explore multiple possible futures."
Comparar com o texto da parte I:
"No esquema, começo (passado) com a indústria portuguesa em 1985, passo pela adesão à CEE, passo pela adesão dos países da Europa de Leste à UE e da China à OMC, continuo pelo reshoring motivado pela rapidez e flexibilidade, chego à actualidade (presente) com a subida dos custos na China e a industrialização massiva na Europa de Leste por estes dias e continuo com os desafios que podem advir (futuro) da evolução actual." 
E continuando a sublinhar:
"we found that strategy making was about constructing new narratives that tie together interpretations of the past, present and future. That is, effective projections of the future must be connected to resonant understandings of the present and past."
...
To develop a new strategic direction for a company during a time of change, managers need to create a strategic narrative that links the company’s past, present and future. Crafting a strategic narrative involves reimagining future possibilities, rethinking the company’s past and reevaluating present concerns."
Continua.

COAR-map e mapas da estratégia (parte II)

Parte I.

"Creating a COAR Map
The starting point in this approach to strategy “executability” is the development of a COAR strategy execution map. This mapping process offers:
􏰀 A visual way to understand the capabilities and projects involved in strategy execution.
􏰀 A guide to the systematic development of strategy execution. There are five steps in creating a COAR Map:

Step 1: Clarify the distinction between customers and stakeholders
Customers and stakeholders are differentiated:
􏰀.
A customer will directly benefit from the outcomes and outputs of strategy execution.
􏰀A stakeholder’s actions can positively or negatively impact the outcomes sought by the customer. [Moi ici: Na nossa linguagem falamos em ecossistema que inclui, além do cliente, por exemplo, o cliente do cliente, o prescriber, o influenciador, o regulador, ... e também beneficiarão dos resultados e saídas da execução estratégica] It is very important to distinguish between the two entities. Stakeholder priorities and outcomes should not be used as a proxy for those of customers. Without a focus on what customers want and need, it is easy to end up investing resources in making stakeholders happy. [Moi ici: Verdade mas nem sempre se verifica] It’s important to ensure that the organization has the means to directly monitor the customer outcomes."


Continua.

 Trechos retirados de "How strategy execution maps guided Cisco System’s Sales Incentive Compensation plan"